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Dollar Short-Squeeze Extended before Stalling ahead of Tomorrow's Key Events: Overview: The short-covering recovery in the US dollar has been extended today but the momentum stalled in the European morning. The key issue is whether North American… dlvr.it/TM9lmB

The 7.5 bp decline in the 10 year Tsy yield today if sustained would be the biggest decline since mid-May. To me, the fact that the yen is flat is a yellow flag, something may be amiss, but even a 0.80 correlation allows for it. Mixed data though good demand at 7yr auction.

$USD is in narrow ranges and mostly softer against the G10 currencies in what promises to be an eventful North American session. Massive earthquake in Northern Atlantic appears to have having minor impact in the capital markets. See marctomarket.com/2025/07/narrow…

Narrow Dollar Ranges are Unlikely to be Sustained through the Packed North American Session: Overview:  Ahead of an important North American session, the US dollar has a slightly softer tone in narrow ranges against the G10 currencies. The Canadian and… marctomarket.com/2025/07/narrow…

Narrow Dollar Ranges are Unlikely to be Sustained through the Packed North American Session: Overview:  Ahead of an important North American session, the US dollar has a slightly softer tone in narrow ranges against the G10 currencies. The Canadian and… dlvr.it/TMBnN2

$USD making new highs during Fed Chair Powell's press conference. Rates a little around three basis points higher. Odds of Sept cut have actually diminished. Yesterday 17.5 bp of easing was discounted now 15.5 bp.

Brazil: 50% tariff + exceptions = de-escalation? > So, the 50% tariff goes ahead, but key exceptions mean that the effective tariff is likely to be ~30%. It is high, but not the end of the world as Brazil is a relatively closed economy and the US accounts for ~11% of exports

The shallowness of the $USD pullback after yesterday's surge warns that the recovery begun at the start of the month is intact. The challenge to it may not be with today's data--largely in yesterday's GDP and recent CPI/PPI--but tomorrow's jobs report. marctomarket.com/2025/07/did-fe…

The PBOC has introduced more flexibility into the setting of the $USD fix, but three-month CNY vol has fallen, and yesterday reached a new 1-yr low. Might it encourage officials to pursue more flexibility? marctomarket.com/2025/07/did-fe… Spoiler:

Did the Fed Really Deliver a Hawkish Hold? The FX Market Seems to Think So: Overview: The dollar jumped yesterday on the back of rising rates as if despite the two dovish dissents by governors, yesterday's FOMC meeting was a hawkish hold. It seemed to us… marctomarket.com/2025/07/did-fe…

Did the Fed Really Deliver a Hawkish Hold? The FX Market Seems to Think So: Overview: The dollar jumped yesterday on the back of rising rates as if despite the two dovish dissents by governors, yesterday's FOMC meeting was a hawkish hold. It seemed to us… dlvr.it/TMCssG

ICYMI

August Monthly: one-month dollar upside correction ended with prejudice on weak economic data, US boosting consumption tax, and a president that fired BLS chief for providing data he did not like after heralding May jobs report as a "great job number." marctomarket.com/2025/08/august…

August 2025 Monthly: The August lull is a myth—a mirage for those who mistake heat for inertia. As this summer advances, businesses and investors should brace for turbulence, not tranquility. A kaleidoscope of US tariffs, an escalation of Russia's… marctomarket.com/2025/08/august…

August 2025 Monthly: The August lull is a myth—a mirage for those who mistake heat for inertia. As this summer advances, businesses and investors should brace for turbulence, not tranquility. A kaleidoscope of US tariffs, an escalation of Russia's… dlvr.it/TMG1cv