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I think like 90% of the Democrats' political problem is they alienate noncollege men with their social-cultural rhetoric, I think everything else is background noise. If voters don't feel respected they won't vote for you.

Trump just nominated Paul Ingrassia to run the Office of Special Counsel. Ingrassia is a former far-right podcast host and election denier who once shared an article calling for “martial law” to keep Donald Trump in office following his loss in the 2020 election. He's 29.

I see at least one of the following happening: 1) The Rs who helped drive the increase in support were socially moderate and have left the party since Trump. 2) The other culture wars around LGBT issues have engendered backlash to all of it, not just the new stuff.

I stand by my belief from 2017 that if Franken had been from a state with a Republican governor, Senate Dems wouldn’t have pressured him to step down.

We have a lot of job postings in the world NYT elections. Click to see more.

We really need to separate “the most annoying guy in your replies” from “the Democrats.” I don’t expect the 2028 nominee to accuse ICE of ethnic cleansing, say it’s eugenics not to wear an N95, etc.

#IASen is definitely a stretch for Dems in 2026, but Ernst just decided to pour gasoline on the fire she started with her bungled statement at a townhall. That’s a decision that suggests she and/or her staff believe she’s safer than she really is.

"While foreign students bring one sort of diversity to U.S. universities, it may not be as great as the diversity provided by Americans of different social backgrounds." David A. Bell nytimes.com/2025/06/01/opi…

Incredible. Cuomo has a true multiracial working-class base. Mamandi, whom the WFP just endorsed, is basically being powers by a young white professional class in Brooklyn.

Is she…walking through a cemetery?

A quick thread about Robert Hur, and what it says about politics. Not picking on Josh-- this tweet just exemplifies what so many partisan Dems said about him and the release of his report One of the worst things about partisan politics is we try to hurt people who tell the truth

It’s a shame that CNN didn’t ask this question between 2014 and 2023, but it’s worth noting that the trend lines first inverted in 2023-under Biden—not this year. Moreover, only 41% of Rs said in this year’s survey the gov’t should do more vs. 57% who say it’s doing too much.

Fairly mundane stories like this are canaries in the coal mine for a future in which people can’t tell reality from fiction—and in situations where the stakes will be far greater.

Which is the Party of the middle class? 🔵 1989: D+23 🔵 2017: D+17 🔵 2022: D+4 🟡 2025: Tied CNN/NBC/CNBC polling

When you put together the timeline of events that had to happen for this clash to take place, it's a doozy. We don't get here without three governors and one lieutenant governor being taken down by scandal.

This should be a much bigger story. Murder has *plunged* across the country—so much so that the U.S. may see the lowest murder rate *ever recorded.* That this is even possible after the 2020 murder spike is truly amazing.

TLP's examination of the social and political trends in the second batch of 15 communities from the excellent American Communities Project breakdown. Part three next week. From Michael Baharaeen open.substack.com/pub/theliberal…

Lack of empathy is often depicted as a problem on the right, but during the pandemic, left-wing analysts often mocked parents who just wanted their kids to get an education at the same time as schools were open in 50% of the U.S. and all of Europe. I'll never forget it.

Gotta be honest, I worry this kind of thing (👇) is going to eventually convince Trump to go all the way with his tariffs—markets be damned—just to stick it to those mocking him.