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• Will habeas corpus be suspended? • Will courts hold part of the executive branch in contempt for defying SCOTUS? Forecast on 10 new questions in our $15,000 POTUS Predictions tournament, with contributions from Bright Line Watch. Start predicting: metaculus.com/tournament/POT…

New forecasts compiled by GiveWell project that US health aid funding will be ~50% lower in 2025-2027 compared to 2024 (range of ~15%-80%). Includes input from external experts, Superforecasters, GiveWell staff, Metaculus, and Center for Global Development. x.com/albrgr/status/…

Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, and the AI Futures team wrote AI 2027, a detailed scenario predicting an intelligence explosion and US-China AI arms race. How credible is the scenario? Share your predictions on their key claims in our new series: metaculus.com/tournament/ai-…

Will Israel-Iran direct conflict claim 1,000+ lives this year? 1,177 forecasters now at 11% - up 4 points this week. Predict here: metaculus.com/questions/3129…

It is very funny that no one can beat the Metaculus template bot. We all think we're so clever, but we're only making it worse.

Good news: Professional forecasters are still strongly outperforming the bots

I'm excited to be speaking at this tomorrow. Tune in! Thanks for the invitation Mpost Media Group!

Bet: Gary Marcus and I have a bet on which car company will have operate in more cities. Waymo or Tesla. He's for Waymo, I'm for Tesla, $200 each way, for charity.

Metaculus's Molly Hickman speaking soon on prediction markets - Join for the AMA @ 10am EST: x.com/i/spaces/1YqKD…

Dimensionalizing Forecast Value Forecasts help us decide under uncertainty, but which questions are worth answering? Metaculus advisor Jordan Rubin on the main drivers of the value of information: Clarity Forecasting can help me make a decision when I don’t know what to do.

Freaking great analysis by Ben Wilson on our AI Benchmark tournament (bots versus pros versus community prediction). Check it out. Analysis code is public AND we have a data exploration site: q1-2025-aib-analysis.streamlit.app