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For all those trying to explain the widespread strength in grain and oilseed markets today -- consider this. If CIT's are spooked by Trump's suggestion of 1% interest rates, knowing how it would let inflation run, they may be behind the buying as a hedge? (recall 2019-2022)

Until these change, don't expect much relief for the Canadian Prairies or NW U.S. crop areas. To make matters worse, it is ideal for the corn belt going into pollination, making supply based rallies unlikely. Demand will have to be the driver for row crops...

Will Commodity Index Traders have the final say on a potential ag market rally yet this year? Spoiler alert -- it is looking increasingly likely...

This gives a glimpse into who won the rain lottery over the weekend (on the left) - likely too late but may provide hope. The right gives a glimpse into who's canola is flowering under stressful conditions with more heat on the way...

It's remarkable how much grain and oilseed markets obsess with export markets when they are simply clearing the excess, especially in the case of corn. With almost 5 times as much corn consumed domestically vs exported, one would think it would be the other way around...

Keep an eye on this — escalation risk would be higher long term rates on inflation fears regardless of lower short term rates, and quite likely an increase in commodity index trader buying as a hedge against inflation…

I’d like to politely correct a mistake that I see frequently regarding #45Z. To qualify for 45Z, the #biofuel must be made from feedstock produced or grown in the US, Canada or Mexico. Avoid using “North America” as shorthand for these 3 countries. N.A. is larger than just them.

MM in corn has sold 600-700k corn recently On the following ideas: Good USA weather ✔️ Suprise stocks number being larger ❌ Large July deliveries ❌ Large BRZ crop hurting US exports ❌ No global weather issues ❌ Weak cash ❌ Higher acres ❌ Charts ✔️ So as you can see. They

It's a good thing Illinois and Indiana don't grow much corn, otherwise this 30-day % of normal precip might mess with some of the private models tripping over themselves to get to new record production estimates (he says sarcastically)

A big win for cattle producers — and a small one for market analysis in general…

we are now also 56 million bushels ahead of the USDA's full season export target with two months left and limited supply availability into the export pipeline until September if not October out of Brazil or Ukraine

This is also (likely) behind Wednesday’s selloff in canola. Funds don’t know or care if the relief is too little, too late, for too many. They just found an excuse to take profits on their near-record net long positions. Good trade though, and not likely over yet…

Corn exports may finally get the respect they deserve after Friday’s WASDE report…

USDA raised corn exports 100 mbu, for a total increase of 550 million bushels from their initial estimate a year ago. wild Below are all corn balance sheet changes

The USDA Did increase its 2024-25 corn export estimate by 100 mb as suspected. To keep from ending stocks falling too far, they lowered feed and residual use by 75 mb, leaving ending stocks of 1.34 bb. In July 2024, they estimated it at 2.097 bb with 525 mb lower exports, oops…

The USDA Did increase their soybean export estimate by 15 mb, cutting residual use by the same to keep ending stocks unchanged. The real interesting changes came in new crop soy complex assumptions thanks to biofuel developments.

#CanadianPrairies: Outside of a system that brought widespread moderate-to-heavy rainfall from central Alberta through northeast Saskatchewan, precipitation was rather mixed, coming in small batches due to thunderstorms. The Canadian Drought Monitor still shows significant areas

🇺🇸USDA forecasts US #soyoil used for biofuels in 2025/26 to surge 23% on the 3yr avg given recent EPA mandates as well as the 45Z tax credit. The 15.5B lbs is +12% from last month's forecast. This means a record 53% of soybean oil usage in the USA will be dedicated to biofuels.