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Nate Silver the vast majority of reporters know no political history beyond a one or two decade time horizon and that has a profound shaping power over political news.

Ho scritto una cosa molto breve su Colin Powell, all’indomani della sua morte. Uno degli uomini più ammirati d’America, eppure ce lo ricorderemo per un discorso pieno zeppo di menzogne. esquire.com/it/news/politi…

Approfondimento del weekend (qui in ritardo). All’interno: due cose su Eric Adams nuovo sindaco di New York; lo stato del dibattito americano su lotta al crimine e riforma della polizia; e infine è vero che assumere più agenti rende le città più sicure? esquire.com/it/news/politi…

Intervista a Radka Leitmeritz, fotografa che sta rivoluzionando il modo in cui si rappresenta il tennis. ultimouomo.com/estetica-tenni…

The good news is we’re on the cusp of a new way of ordering the American polity. The bad news? We could fall short. Thomas Zimmer: Multiracial democracy will be expanded or aborted. editorialboard.com/the-good-news-…

THREAD Re-reading some history on this MLK day. I read all of Robert Caro a number of years ago. No better biography written. So when I hear Portman, LaRose, Romney and others oppose the “federal takeover” of voting rights, I knew it sounded familiar. 1/

Sinema and Manchin are an odd couple insofar as their electoral environments are a lot different. Sinema has probably hurt her chances of being reelected because a primary challenge at this point will have a high likelihood of success. With Manchin incentives harder to parse.

Economists such as Smith, Marx, Keynes and Schumpeter were eclectic individuals, w philosophical, literary and artistic interests. Not people solely obsessed w number-crunching. It would not be bad for economic science to go back to that more humanistic approach to reality.

Primary-wise, these two shouldn’t be lumped together. There’s no serious effort to challenge Manchin because it’s WV. There is talk against Sinema because AZ is a swing state that has elected a Dem president and two Dem senators in the last few years.

I would be surprised if the nomination fight for Breyer's replacement, despite the Very Hot Take op-Eds and Twitter feuds and cable news rants, is anything except fairly sleepy, particularly if Biden just does the easy/smart/obvious thing and nominates Ketanji Brown.

“Sometimes you do need fancy metrics to tell, but a map that gives Democrats 85 percent of the seats in a state that is not 85 percent Democratic — this is not a particularly hard case,” Michael Li 李之樸 told Luis Ferré-Sadurní Grace Ashford and me More on NY's new lines>> nytimes.com/2022/02/02/nyr…

Thanks, Matthew Yglesias: Ukraine and the end of history slowboring.com/p/ukraine-and-…

This is seriously a big deal. The decline of unions has been central to a lot of what has gone wrong in America this past half century 1/ nytimes.com/2022/04/01/tec…

The theory that "misinformation" has changed electoral outcomes in the US is pretty badly underbaked, especially given that the last several elections have broadly been in line with what you might expect given underlying economic conditions, etc.

Cose che non cambiano mai

Oggi è cominciato Wimbledon e io ho scritto una cosa che parla un po’ di questa edizione e un po’ della scorsa. Su Esquire, qui sotto. esquire.com/it/sport/a4040…

Taylor Fritz calls the new trial allowing in-match coaching on the ATP Tour "a dumb rule" and says he's not using it I asked him why it's dumb (and agree 100 percent with his answer):

Reminder that if polling accuracy is in decline (probably true) that doesn't make forecasting via the vibes good. The vibes are always dumb.

Ho scritto una cosa sullo stato della democrazia americana, o forse della democrazia in generale, a partire dal fatto che oggi i colpi di stato non sono operazioni militari, ma burocratiche esquire.com/it/news/politi…

Except this time the polls correctly showed Democrats having a relatitvely good midterm and came very close the correct margin in most key races and a lot of journalists didn't take them at face value and went with the vibes instead.