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So let’s just get this crystal clear. If somebody is trying to manufacture a laptop in the U.S., the components that they import are going to be tariffed at 145%. But if somebody simply makes the laptop entirely in China, they are fully tariff free? And this is all to bring

Such a treat to open my day in London participating in this event, and close it attending Chatham House’s “What Is Trumpism” panel.

Read the story and the thread with Robin Brooks below for important complexities. If you think you’ve got a simple analysis on US-China trade, from any side, you’re doing it wrong.

Words fail me. What Brad Setser Sander Tordoir and Noah Gordon said. Plus a gentle reminder that bashing the Biden Admin *seemed* cost-free.

A consolation of getting older is that crazy things from your childhood are now interesting history. Tune in to hear about how everything old with trade deficits is new again…

Kayyem: Active duty Marines for this? I mean, we were just reporting on it. There's music. The traffic is moving. Most people in L.A. probably don't even know that this is going on. It's such a big, city, and we need an administration that's not going to get to defcon one every

The US & Chinese trade negotiators have negotiated a handshake agreement to seek signoff to agree that a previously-agreed agreement is still their agreed upon agreement. (That agreement is not an agreement but a framework for seeking future agreements.) wsj.com/economy/trade/…

The US can't counter Chinese mineral dominance because it doesn't consume enough minerals. The only option is to work with allies. Nice work by Gracelin Baskaran (Gracelin Baskaran) (Exports are generally less crucial to China than is assumed--its own market is massive.)

Well I feel safer!

Respectfully, we’re now 100 minutes into waiting for maintenance supervisors to look at a photo of a (sanded-out) scratch, per the pilot, who says he’s confident it’s safe. That … seems like wasting fuel and crew hours rather than safety first.

Thanks Jennifer Lind and colleagues for including me— a heady mix of theory and pragmatism.

Twice a migrant. Making America (truly) great.

Wow. New NBC poll finds only 38% of Americans support Trump's bombing of Iran. Crucially, much of the poll was taken while Trump announced a ceasefire and in the days after. No wonder Hegseth is such a mess. Trump likely screaming at his top people to turn this fiasco around.

Today seems like a great day to think about the relationship between US fiscal policy and US global engagement —and to remember some big deadlines coming up fast after July 4. chathamhouse.org/2025/07/three-…

US exports to Vietnam are small now, would have been small with TPP (lots of trade already at low WTO rates) and will be small after this deal. What will impact the US is the 20% import tariff ... 1/2

Trump's savage toll: "More than 75,000 adults and children are now estimated to have died because of the effective shutdown of PEPFAR that began less than 6 months ago. "Another adult life is being lost every 3 minutes; a child dies every 31 minutes." theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

I wish I'd been wrong on where the trade talks were going. Since I wasn't, you should read the piece.

New poll from Gallup: 30% say immigration should be reduced (down from 55% last year) 79% say immigration is a good thing for the country (all-time high) and 17% say it’s a bad thing (all-time low) Pathways to citizenship ⬆️ Measures to deter/reverse illegal immigration ⬇️

Secretary Rubio fired State HQ's entire ASEAN team while he was in Malaysia, attending the ASEAN meetings they prepared for him. Glad he liked the meetings, though.

Well my day is made. Now if the Yankees can just not come back…