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Despite the increase in household finance sentiment, median household spending growth expectations declined by 0.2 percentage point to 4.8%, edging just under the trailing 12-month average of 4.9%, although remaining above the 4.4% hit in Jan.

BoA: Our macro framework suggests that 10y #UST yield fair value consistent with current US fundamentals is c.4.15-4.2%, steady from early Jun ‘25. 10yT yields trade around c.15bp cheap (<1σ) to the FV range that is consistent with current US macro fundamentals, reflecting

NY consumer survey: Expectations for 1yr price growth of gold edged up two tenths to 5.5%, just a tenth off the record high in April (to June 2013). #oott $GLD

"After the US election in 2024 and 2017, a 7% rally led to key peaks starting 2025 and 2018. The size of the correction that followed differed. In 2025, weekly closing values show the S&P declined -18.90% while in 2018 it declined about 10%. Both periods bottomed in March-April

US (/HG) copper futures jump 20% before settling back but still up over 10% after Pres Trump says he will be imposing a tariff on copper which he said he believed would be at 50%. Commerce Sec Lutnick later said that the tariff would go into effect at the end of July or start

Also coming out of the Trump briefing today was potential 200% tariffs on pharma products (“We’re going to give people about a year, a year and a half, to come in") as well as a likely "letter" to the EU given frustration over the bloc’s taxes and fines targeting US technology

We got the first of our three #UST auctions this week with $58bn in 3yr’s. First, note the 3-yr auctions for whatever reason have been one of the weakest over the past 9 mths, tailing (yield above exp’s) 7 of the previous 9 auctions with the April auction seeing the largest tail

Markets started the day little changed at the large cap level (DJIA with a small loss) with modest gains for the RUT and ended similarly as they spent the day in very tight ranges (SPX was less than a half percent) as traders digested more tariff talk from Pres Trump.

Sector breadth from CME Cash Indices improved somewhat but still just 5 green sectors and only one was up more than around a half percent (Energy). Five sectors were down by that much with bond proxies Utilities and Staples each losing more than -1% pressured by increasing

SPX stock-by-stock flag from Finviz relatively consistent looking more mixed today, although again not many big movers. On the upside energy names saw nice gains as did MU and INTC along with some others. Banks on the other hand were fairly weak with JPM and BAC both down

NYSE positive volume (percent of total volume that was in advancing stocks) which has been relatively strong of late remained so Tuesday at 60.6%, pretty good for a flat day in the index. Compare that to June 11th when it was 46.9% on a small gain.

Nasdaq positive volume an even better story coming in at 69.7%, with just a +0.03% gain in the index. In comparison it was 65.0% on June 18th on a slightly larger +0.13% gain in the index.

Markets Update - 7/8/25 Update on US equity and bond markets, US economic reports, the Fed, and select commodities with charts! $SPX #Nasdaq $NDX $RUT #FOMC #UST $TNX $DXY #WTI $GLD $IBIT $UNG #oott neilsethi.substack.com/p/markets-upda…

The 1-Day VIX fell for a fourth session as it edges closer to the lows hit last week, closing at 10.5, consistent with traders implying a ~0.65% move in the SPX next session.

The surge in Comex (US) vs LME (UK) copper prices today saw that spread blow out to a record 25% premium despite the fact that Comex inventories have more than doubled since the start of the year. There’s now more copper stored in Comex warehouses than there is in the combined

Wednesday US economic data will be limited to May wholesale inventories and weekly mortgage applications and EIA petroleum inventories. No Fed speakers on the calendar, but we will get the June FOMC minutes which might be interesting as might be our second Treasury note auction

Goldman: DM data surprises have turned negative over the past several weeks.

BoA: Taiwan exports show evidence of a continued tech boom (and possible continued tariff frontloading), surging 33.7% yoy in June (vs. 38.6% in May), beating expectations for 27.1%. Technology exports came in at 51.4% yoy (vs. 60.6% in May), while non-tech exports fell by

China producer deflation continues to deepen with PPI falling -3.6% y/y, the 33rd consecutive month of negative readings and accelerating from -3.3% in May. Consumer prices though were +0.1% vs -0.1% exp'd (which was also the same as the previous three months). Dong Lijuan,

BoA: If the [Japan] tariffs take effect as planned, this would increase the average effective duty on Japan's exports to the US from just over 15% to 25%. Given that Japan's 2024 goods exports to the US accounted for 3.5% of nominal GDP (Exhibit 1), a back-of-envelope calculation