The totally groundless firing of Dr. Erika McEntarfer, my successor as Commissioner of Labor Statistics at BLS, sets a dangerous precedent and undermines the statistical mission of the Bureau. For a full statement opposing this move, read: friendsofbls.org/updates/2025/8…

Turns out the energy shock to Germany had bigger effects than people realized, it just took a while to materialize. There’s a chance tariffs work like that too.

!!!

Our AI overlords are here:

Don’t think core goods ex-autos slowing to 0.22% SA in Jul vs 0.55% in Jun is a sign tariffs aren’t being passed on to consumers or effects are modest. NSA is usually -6% annz in Jul but was 0 today. Breadth > in Jul than Jun. Lots of 3m SAAR highs only matched by Covid data.

Ah regular service resumed

Trump says he is removing Fed Governor Lisa Cook from her position in a post on his social media account

What is the Federal Reserve Endgame? theovershoot.co/p/what-is-the-… Suborning the central bank will obviously have implications for monetary policy. But the power that could be exercised via regulatory and supervisory control of the banking system is even greater.

Our new "Quarterly Review" is here. Our Neil Mehrotra & Mike Waugh (Mike Waugh) model the connection between tariffs & r-star. Plus Tim Kehoe 🇺🇸🇨🇦🇲🇽🇺🇦 & Xing Xu of Heller-Hurwicz Economics Institute explain the diverging growth paths of export giants China & Mexico. bit.ly/3JlfbzS

Imho too much discussion on here about whether the labor market is weak or not given slowdown in labor supply. Too little discussion of how to proceed with downside risks to both sides of the mandate.