🚨New WP🚨 I used to think AI would replace workers. Studying a database with the near universe of commercial AI (including GenAI + factory, and office tools) I found the opposite: AI increases employment by giving low-skilled workers expert knowledge.🧵

It's really unusual for 30-year Treasury yield to rise in a Fed easing cycle. It's even more unusual for 30-year yield to rise with all the world's major central banks in an easing cycle. This tells you monetary policy isn't the problem. Runaway fiscal deficits are the problem...

I have to say I have been struck that the prominent members of the financial community have had more to say being critical of Zohran Kwame Mamdani's bad ideas about grocery stores in New York than they have the wholesale takeover of the @FederalReserve, which is a major threat to the

If you teach an undergrad international trade course and want some hands-on experience with real data & Stata or R, consider my “Gravity for Undergrads” Chapter. It may be useful in econometrics, undergrad seminars, and undergrad theses. Gravity Rules 💪 yotoyotov.com/Gravity_Underg…

If South Korea chained several hundred US workers, many Americans would be talking war. Hard to exaggerate how mad this is. Mad economics, mad foreign policy. Shameful to treat an ally this way. This is the kind of thing which won’t be forgotten. Decades of good will torched.

“The United States is approaching the point at which the national debt could undermine not only the country’s economic stability but also the things that have sustained its global power for so many decades,” warns ​​Kenneth S Rogoff. foreignaffairs.com/united-states/…

ICE wanted to walk hundreds of engineers and skilled workers in handcuffs to a plane to make them look tough. People who were installing machinery to build a plant that was going to hire thousands of American workers. This is an agency engaged in national sabotage.

Taking a minute to celebrate today. R&R from JPE on method for identifying causal effects of tariff changes that avoid the concerns associated with endogenous protection/political economy of tariff setting. Lots of work ahead, but extremely grateful for the opportunity.

"It was an accident.... They just transported everybody to the jail to sort it out later." "If we’re turning from ‘let’s enforce the law against people who violate the law’ to ‘let’s enforce the law against everybody regardless of their legal status,’ I think we’ve changed the

Great paper. China’s industrial policy was most effective when decentralized. Since 2013, centralization rewarded compliance over innovation. Furthers my view that for some sectors, Beijing’s “anti-involution” drive is cleaning up distortions caused by its top-down guidance.

Look it’s one thing to arrest illegal Immigrants; wouldn’t be my priority, but, whatever. But rounding up and humiliating foreign nationals of an allied nation who were here TO BUILD A FACTORY? How irredeemably stupid can you be?

Mis lectores habituales saben que insisto mucho en que el dinero público que nos gastamos en cosas como ayudas a ONGs, fundaciones o medios de comunicación no es mucho dentro del océano que representa el presupuesto de las administraciones públicas y que, por tanto, cortarlo no

America is shooting itself in the foot

Rule OF law boosts prosperity by applying equally to all, creating a level playing field where resources flow to their best use. Rule BY law lets the powerful twist the state for enrichment, leaving everyone else to pay the price.

US support is certainly helpful to prevent speculative currency moves. However, durable progress will require Argentina to move to a more flexible exchange rate regime, accumulate reserves, and build support for its reforms at home.

In the latest episode of Trade Guys, Bill Reinsch, Scott Miller, and Philip A. Luck discuss China vs Nvidia, lumber disputes with Canada, and updated sanctions on Russia. Listen here: csis.org/podcasts/trade…

NEW: Every living former Fed chair (Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen) ... have joined several former Treasury secretaries (Rubin, Summers, Paulson, Geithner, Lew) ... and CEA chairs (Hubbard, Mankiw, Romer, Furman, Rouse, Bernstein) who served presidents of both parties ... in an

Join Philip A. Luck on Tuesday, October 7, from 12:00-2:00pm for Unlocking Growth in Emerging Markets: Digital Integration and Fiscal Innovation. Register here: csis.org/events/unlocki…

What’s next for export-led growth in a fractured global economy? Indonesia’s pivot toward downstreaming offers lessons. Read more from CSIS Economics Program and Scholl Chair: csis.org/blogs/charting…

🚨 New episode of Cache Me if You Can📷 Matt Pearl sits down with Philip A. Luck & Bill Reinsch to unpack antitrust, competition, and what it means for U.S. tech leadership. csis.org/podcasts/cache…