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Trump, overnight: “If Kamala wins, you are 3 days away from the start of a 1929-style economic depression.” What has happened since the last time he predicted a depression if a Democrat won:

Never mind the prediction markets, which are thin and easily manipulated. Here’s the evidence for shifting vibes

Trump says that armed migrants have taken over our cities. If so, they’re doing a remarkably good job of maintaining order nytimes.com/2024/11/02/ups…

Polling suggests that Harris has more or less erased Trump’s advantage on the economy. Much of that is probably the reality of falling inflation. But a well-focused campaign has surely helped. nytimes.com/2024/11/04/us/…

More on the incredible shrinking economy issue: at this point it looks like an election over abortion rights and immigration. And that Selzer poll suggests that we may be underestimating the POW — pissed-off women — vote

Incredibly, people are still writing stories about how only the elite has benefited from the strong economy. In fact, the biggest gains have gone to low-wage workers

I wonder how much Trump being the boy who cried “depression” has helped neutralize his once formidable advantage on the economy

One possibly important factor in the election: People are still a bit mad about high prices, but historical patterns suggest that most of this effect should have faded by now briefingbook.info/p/digesting-in…

Some worry that America may become a soft autocracy like Hungary, with one-party rule but not violent repression. We should be so lucky. nytimes.com/2024/11/04/opi…

More on Harris closing the economy gap: partisan positions, especially R, largely immovable. So looking at improvement btwn Sept and Oct Times polls, it looks as if Harris had huge success in persuading the persuadable

Our plan for today: Instead of sitting at home doomscrolling, we’re going to a museum, so we can doomscroll in front of great art

Urban hellscape. People don’t dare leave their apartments

If this goes the way it seems to be going, a plea: Hold the recriminations. The important thing will be figuring out how to fight the climate of repression, which will begin via preemptive obedience long before the government formally changes hands

Don’t ask whose fault this was. Plenty of time for second-guessing and recriminations. Ask instead, what can you do? For my part, that means telling the truth as I see it, as long as I can. The media will be under a lot of pressure to toe the line; don’t capitulate in advance

For the past few days it has felt as if nature was mocking us with beautiful weather following political disaster. But that seems to be over (wildfires in New Jersey!)

Some analytical thoughts about the coming trade war stonecenter.gc.cuny.edu/can-trump-redu…

For anyone interested, kind of fun event on decayed industry and what comes next. NOT about the election, except insofar as it affects regional policy 92ny.org/event/cathedra…

I've stopped visiting this neighborhood, but for those still around, I have a newsletter paulkrugman.substack.com

Hey all, Jared Bernstein here, former Biden CEA chair. My White House acct is archived (Jared Bernstein Archived) and this is my new X acct. I've got a substack (at least I think I do...boomer IT alert) econjared.substack.com/p/a-misery-ind… Anyway, a lot more to come...