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Reports of a tornado southwest of Appleton earlier this afternoon from supercells now south of Wilmar. SPC says 60% chance of a watch with enhanced risk over much of central and southern Minnesota. Major risk is large hail but an isolated tornado can't be ruled out

Severe thunderstorm watch for central and southern MN until midnight. Flash flood warning for Stevens and Pope counties. Some big hail with these storms and flooding can't be ruled out. Celebrating our 41st wedding anniversary this evening so I'll trying to ignore the weather

What anniversary dinner? Storms entering metro have 60 mph gusts. More concerned about a conga-line of training storms (reforming over the same counties) producing flooding rains. 3-6" has already fallen near Morris and Benson - similar totals can't be ruled out close to MSP

we will rebuild

Doppler estimates show around 7" of rain in the last few hours near Morris, roads underwater in Stevens Co. A juicy airmass overhead and storms tracking over the same counties multiple times may result in 1-2 month's worth of rain for a few spots tonight. Take it easy out there

1.5" diameter hail in Plymouth. Thanks Josh

Could get spicy out there again later today. Metro risk is greatest late afternoon and evening

NSSL data suggests the 7-9" rain (Doppler estimates) that fell west of Morris, Minnesota yesterday was a 1 in 75 year flood for 24 hour rainfall

HRRR loop from 7pm this evening thru 4am Tuesday. Severe storms initiate in eastern South Dakota then push eastward during the nighttime hours. Significant risk of large hail, damaging straight-line winds and a few tornadoes, especially south/west of MSP

I doubt it but we are in an enhanced risk and close enough to moderate risk to pay very close attention

#satire

Significant risk for Twin Cities metro later today. When I see "Moderate Threat" from SPC it usually means large hail and wind damage is likely (tornadic and straight-line). Mother Nature about to get nasty 🤪

Most of the afternoon should be OK within 100 miles of MSP, but risk grows quickly evening and overnight hours. It's the overnight severe storm outbreaks that are most dangerous (people are sleeping, streaming, not paying attention). Main risk for metro: 9pm to 3am

Being so close to SPC Moderate Risk (level 4 out of 5) MSP is certainly not out of the woods for tonight's severe outbreak. There will be watches and warnings and probably damage. The most widespread risk will be damaging straight-line winds with these T-storms

No derecho, at least not yet, but strong T-storms approaching metro, just below severe limits. Expect wind gusts to 55mph and pea-size hail. No need to water the lawn anytime soon

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings for portions of the western and southwest MSP metro for 60 mph winds and small hail. Moving east at 40 mph. Time to move the party (I wasn't invited to) inside 🙄

KMPX (Chanhassen) Doppler showing 65 mph straight-line winds over the north metro

75 mph straight-line winds detected on Doppler (derived winds) north of Blaine. Strongest winds moving rapidly southeast toward Lino Lakes, White Bear Lake, North Oaks and Dellwood

Severe Thunderstorm Warning including Minneapolis MN, Saint Paul MN and Bloomington MN until 10:30 PM CDT

We get a cool, dry, comfortable, siren-free break into most of the weekend. Relieved to go back to the 70s