Our paper with Peiran Liu on accounting for uncertainty about past estimates of fertility in probabilistic projections just out on arXiv: arxiv.org/abs/1806.01513

I’m speaking today at 2pm at #JSM2019 on “Forecasting Future Smoking-Related Mortality in 69 Countries: The Vital Role of Latent Variables,” w Yicheng Li, in CC-301. Honored to have discussants rob tibshirani and Mark van der Laan, chair Xiao-Li Meng & organizer Booil Jo.

From what I observe, many first generation Asians (esp with good jobs) think we are immune from racism, usually because we tend to work in occupations with disproportionally more Asian faces. Please rethink. If this can happen to a university professor, it can happen to everyone.

It's a human tragedy, a refusal to learn from observation. "Experience is a candle that only lights the way for the one who holds it."

A summary of the evidence on the association between fertility preferences and childbearing, by John Cleland, K. Machiyana & John Casterline: tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.108…

The latest #COVID19 forecasts from Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) continue to mystify me. Models should have more certainty about things that will happen in the short term and less in the long term. The latest forecasts defy this basic logic.

It’s hard to enact good science policy without understanding how science works, or listening to scientists. My heart breaks for the many talented scientists from all over the world who have come to the U.S. (or wish to!) and don’t deserve this treatment 💔 💔 💔

Our new article just published: "Accounting for uncertainty about past values in probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate for most countries" w Peiran Liu projecteuclid.org/euclid.aoas/15…

ICE does say students, rather than leave, could "take alternative steps ... such as a reduced course load or appropriate medical leave." But RCL is only available for: - Academic difficulties; - Medical conditions; and - Completion of a course of study. It won't apply for most.

To my UK scientist colleagues: why are you not more shocked and horrified by the number of avoidable deaths in your country? Why are you not more vocal in your criticisms of government? Why are you colluding in this human catastrophe? Why? UK science has lost its moral compass.

Notably, the last two data points came from DHS national data in Samoa and the algorithm down-weight them until further information.

State-wide robbery.

Our new paper on the boost needed to the Paris Agreement commitments to stay under 2 C of warming, w Peiran Liu, just published Open Access in Communications Earth & Environment: nature.com/articles/s4324…

Our article, "Estimating SARS-CoV-2 infections from deaths, confirmed cases, tests, and random surveys" w Nick Irons just published in PNAS: pnas.org/content/118/31… A call for regular random testing surveys, & statistically combining the main available data sources.

We're really pleased to announce the first keynote speaker for our 2022 Royal Statistical Society International Conference. Adrian Raftery will deliver the Campion (President's Invited) lecture in Aberdeen this September. More speakers tba over the coming weeks. rss.org.uk/news-publicati…

#MyOAarticle "Country-based rate of emissions reductions should increase by 80% beyond nationally determined contributions to meet the 2°C target" w Peiran Liu got 52,998 downloads since its publication in Communications Earth & Environment: nature.com/articles/s4324…

Our new paper, "Probabilistic Estimation and Projection of the Annual Total Fertility Rate Accounting for Past Uncertainty: A Major Update of the bayesTFR R Package" w Peiran Liu & Hana Ševčíková just released arxiv.org/abs/2207.06593 Used for #WPP2022 @Patrick_Gerland

Our article, "Long‑term probabilistic temperature projections for all locations," w Xin Chen, David Battisti, Peiran Liu just published online link.springer.com/content/pdf/10… We combine probabilistic forecasts of future global average temperature with a pattern scaling method.

What’s in the box? 👀 You can RT and find out! Roaming Form Gimmighoul can now be caught in #PokemonGO! We’re celebrating by giving away Gimmighoul-themed prizes!🥳🎉 To claim: Follow us on Twitter RT this post with #GOGimmighoul You’ll get a code to redeem. Let’s GO!

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