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🎉Finally found a South China Sea document I’ve been seeking for a long time! An 1899 translation of a letter in which the ‘Chinese Foreign Ministry’ (the Zongli Yamen of the Qing Great State) says the Paracel Islands are ‘high seas’ and, implicitly, not part of its territory...

What triggered the wave of protests and what options does China have in responding? Meia Nouwens 温玫雅 and Paul Fraioli investigate in their latest expert Q&A. go.iiss.org/ProtestsInChina

The new Bing is out. Here’s the end of a short conversation about Keats: some memorable lines and a punchy fourth stanza!

#Russia' new foreign-policy concept discusses arms control and strategic stability, as in 2016, but for the first time does so in the context of Russia using its nuclear potential to prevent and deter a general war. Analysis by William Alberque and Paul Fraioli: go.iiss.org/3zYpeGC

The airing of grievances is an important part of Festivus, and the 2023 Russian Foreign Policy Concept. Proud to work with Paul Fraioli to understand the fundamental re-ordering of Russian priorities against Europe and the "Ango-Saxon World." iiss.org/online-analysi…

Vivek describes his foreign policy ideals as Nixonian but in reality they are deeply Wilsonian.

Was Henry Kissinger a Realist? Not really. [THREAD]

This is something I had to get off my chest. A debt to history?

Join us on Wednesday at the IISS DC office for the in-person launch of Planning for Protraction. Discussion chaired by ⁦⁦⁦Paul Fraioli⁩ with ⁦⁦Nadège Rolland⁩ & ⁦⁦Alexander Bick⁩ providing their own expert commentary. iiss.org/events/2023/12…

”It is possible that NATO will proceed in allowing additional countries to certify dual-capable aircraft or additional locations as Dispersed Operating Bases, but it is unlikely to announce this publicly. ” iiss.org/publications/s…

Just got off the phone with one of the American CEOs who went to the China Development Forum (CDF) this week and met with Xi Jinping on Wednesday in China. Speaking on condition of anonymity, he said "Business is still terrible," and confidence in the economy is very low. 1/9

Likely to become Europe’s premier defense summit.

IISS experts Evan A. Laksmana, Paul Fraioli, Veerle Nouwens 温丽玉 & James Hackett explain why and how the US, China and European countries implement military exercises with their allies and partners in the Asia-Pacific. #SLD24 Read Chapter 1 of APRSA. bit.ly/4aN34a9

Zelenskyy criticises Chinese support for Russia 1/ - With China’s support for Russia, the war will last longer - That's bad for the whole world - It's also not good for China, which declares that it supports sovereignty and territorial integrity

Combined-military exercises are one of the core pillars of the Asia-Pacific security order. IISS experts Evan A. Laksmana, Paul Fraioli, Veerle Nouwens 温丽玉 & James Hackett examine the broad patterns of combined-military exercises among Asia-Pacific countries. bit.ly/4aN34a9

My recently published essay for Survival: Global Politics and Strategy assesses the new book "Unit X", on the birth and evolution of DefenseInnovationUnit. The key question: how quickly can defense bureaucracies adapt to technological change? [PDF] tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10.10…

In Unit X: How the Pentagon and Silicon Valley Are Transforming the Future of War, Raj M. Shah and Christopher Kirchhoff illuminate the US government’s erratic treatment of a promising programme. Review by Paul Fraioli. bit.ly/Survival66-5

French government toppled in historic no-confidence vote lemonde.fr/en/france/arti…

The end of the Axis of Resistance.

Trump's interest in buying Greenland was seen as a joke in his first term but in fact it was a constant ambition fueled by his friend Ron Lauder and led to a serious set of options including a lease-purchase agreement, as we reported in "The Divider." Susan Glasser