🔥The 9th Round of Easy Loan, Earn $40 Reward is in progress❗️ ⏰ Promotion Period: January 15th - Feburary 15th, 2025 👉 Register now and check more details at gate.io/campaigns/358

I warned the world about Putin, now I’m warning America about Putinization. Rhetoric about enemies within. Power privatized by sycophants. Propaganda over principle. This isn’t hyperbole; for me it’s déjà vu. If you care about freedom, now’s the time to act. Link below.

#Trump's global impact in one chart

For most Brits, 99% of their lives are already "invested" in Britain – their jobs, homes, and the solvency of the UK state. Forcing the small amount of savings they have into Britain *as well* takes away one of the only bits of diversification away from Britain that they can do.

Once we have more of our money in these assets, the political demand will grow to prop them up and protect them from failure. It's a classic intervention that begets further interventions. "We can't let X fail, because we'll lose our pensions if we do."

Markets trade US tariffs as a global shock that hits everyone similarly. That's wrong. The US is a big net importer, so what's an inflationary shock to the US is a deflationary shock everywhere else. This is starting to show up in data. Today's substack: robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-tariff-i…

First Elon Musk destroyed his popularity with everyone who is against Donald J. Trump. Now he's destroying his relationship with Trump. Great work! Maybe time to write a sequel to "How to win friends and influence people"? 🤣

Later this month, #NATO is set to agree targets for higher #defence spending, by some future date. But Europe needs to rearm massively, right now. The threat from Putin is imminent, as is the risk that Trump abandons #Europe, or betrays it. 🧵 philippelegrain.substack.com/p/europe-needs…

Three immediate priorities: 1. defend #Ukraine 2. deter #Putin 3. reduce dependence on #Trump While this will eventually require tax rises and/or spending cuts, the best way to fund a big emergency boost to defence spending is by borrowing more for a few years...

But three big constraints 1. fiscal rules (now OK in the EU, not in the UK) 2. financial borrowing power (fine for Germany, less so for France and UK) 3. political feasibility (OK for Germany & France, less so for UK; Hungary veto at EU level)..

The best way forward is for a coalition of willing governments, both EU and non-EU (eg UK), to borrow collectively. As investors seek alternatives to dollar assets, there's huge appetite for safe, euro-denominated bonds...

Done right, eg Bruegel's EDM proposal, this could also help streamline military procurement, better integrate Europe’s fighting forces and even provide a much-needed lift to Europe’s struggling economies. Read my latest Substack essay for more. philippelegrain.substack.com/p/europe-needs…

Excellent, very timely paper. Deserves to be widely read and acted on in Brussels, Berlin, Paris and elsewhere

Don't think Xi is feeling that much pressure from Trump's trade war. Exports to the US dipped, but exports to the rest of the world largely offset. The overall monthly goods surplus still topped $100b/ is on track to hit $1.2 trillion (gulp) 1/

How a book written in 1910 can teach you calculus in 30 seconds:

Germany recently relaxed its “debt brake” limit on government borrowing. How will the rest of Europe incl the ECB react? A selection of prominent economic strategists offer their thoughts the the latest The International Economy international-economy.com