Save the date! September 1st is the deadline for your proposals ⁦SPSA⁩

What do voters predict will occur for the '24 US presidential election? Using citizen forecasts from Verasight, Michael Lewis-Beck and I set an early days baseline for the presidential election. In Center for Politics at UVA Crystal Ball. POLITICAL FORECASTING GROUP shorturl.at/impbY

A suivre sur BFM Business l’interview de ⁦Bruno JEROME⁩

Per new Pew Research Center poll, Kennedy takes more votes from Biden than Trump, and his support is concentrated among young and non-white voters pewresearch.org/politics/2024/…

Save the date deadline coming soon!

Yup.

Join us in Philly for the last APSA annual meeting before #PresidentialElection2024 !

We don’t have the posting up yet, but we are hiring this year for the Royal Professorship at UMKC. Associate or Full. This is a political science search open to subfield. I’ll be at #apsa2024 if you have any questions or would like to chat!

A warm welcome to Philly!

Great panel this afternoon ⁦APSA⁩ !Thanks to ⁦⁦⁦Debra Leiter⁩ (Chair) Thomas Gruca ⁦Thomas A. Rietz⁩ ⁦Bruno JEROME⁩ ⁦Véronique JEROME⁩ ⁦Michael Lewis-Beck⁩ Charles Tien ⁦Hannah Rajski⁩ and Gregory Love (discussant) and the audience!

Here is the world debut of “Variations on Democracy”, composed by Lee Hartman and performed by the Mid America Freedom Band. Thank you APSA Herring Fund for Political Art for your support m.youtube.com/watch?v=sx0aUp…

Congratulations !

I give some thoughts on forecasting and the presidential election …. boisestate.edu/sps/blog/2024/…

#USElection2024 Les prévisions de 13 modèles quantitatifs (achevées fin juillet) des économistes, politistes et polito-économistes aujourd'hui dans Le Figaro. Par Bruno JEROME , Véronique JEROME et Fabrice Nodé-Langlois. En moyenne, Trump l'emporte sur le fil. lefigaro.fr/international/…

Modèles achevés fin juillet, la synthèse de leurs résultats penche pour Harris en moyenne à 50,6% mais avec un spectre des possibles de 53,6% pour la sortante à 48,1% resp. 48,4%[ soit Trump à 51,9% resp. 51,6% pour les modèles de Lewis-Beck & Tien et resp Jérôme & Jérôme]

Pour les chercheurs du PFG en moyenne : Trump 281

Congrats to our fellow forecasters ! Very good job! Economic voting models are still alive !

Save the date !

News Alert for Political scientists and political forecasters : only two weeks before the SPSA deadline !