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📣 Call for Papers 📣 Interested in the newest research on polarization, norms & trust? Present your work our workshop on Dec 5-6 @ MIT, co-organized with David G. Rand @dgrand.bsky.social, Yphtach Lelkes Adam Berinsky & Kati Kish Bar-On 𝐑𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧: sites.google.com/view/polarizat… 𝗗𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲: July 14

New post on the realization after two decades of Poindexter's dream open.substack.com/pub/rajivsethi…

Rajiv Sethi The Policy Analysis Market (and FutureMAP) Archive: mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/polic…

"The long Turkic interlude did not diminish the influence of Persian literature and culture. On the contrary, while Iranian hard power faded into memory, Iranian soft power rose in stature, a civilizational beacon whose light bathed every nook and cranny of the Islamic world"

New post on the possibility of a long, hot summer open.substack.com/pub/rajivsethi…

Interesante a passagem que diz que em 1967 o exército conseguiu dominar os motins de foma mais pacifica que a guarda nacional

Market response to the latest from Emerson College Polling

I'm always amazed at the level of subjective certainty that some folks have regarding such events, but it's clear that Christopher Clary had a better grasp of the situation here:

New post on prediction markets, opinion polls, and the New York City mayor's race: open.substack.com/pub/rajivsethi…

Rajiv Sethi Kalshi and Polymarket calibration: calibration.city

This is a very interesting point

Great thread on my latest paper!

Some links for your Wednesday from Rajiv Sethi Kirk Evans and Miles Earn and Burn riskofruinpod.substack.com/p/links-predic…

New post on professional distancing in academia (based recent work by Kris Gulati and Lorenzo Palladini): open.substack.com/pub/rajivsethi…

I was fortunate enough to get great feedback from several people along the way and Rajiv was very generous with his time, talking about new ideas, and still continues to offer suggestions on the paper!

Familiar from Brexit? These are markets in which people with inside information (including state actors) can make a lot of money without risk of exposure, since the exchange is crypto-based and doesn’t have a know-your-client requirement Rajiv Sethi open.substack.com/pub/rajivsethi…

Intuitive result, prediction markets only win when they're thick