🔥The 9th Round of Easy Loan, Earn $40 Reward is in progress❗️ ⏰ Promotion Period: January 15th - Feburary 15th, 2025 👉 Register now and check more details at gate.io/campaigns/358

L'euro è un'unione di trasferimenti nel senso peggiore del termine. Blocca l'Italia in un tasso di cambio sopravvalutato e in un equilibrio di bassa crescita. Questo uccide la produttività e il dinamismo ed è profondamente regressivo.

👇👇must watch !!!

Great to have spoken alongside Daniela Schwarzer at the JPM CEE Macro & FI conference in Vienna on June 5-6 on geopolitics. Great event - focus on big themes impacting CEE (energy, trade, demographics, autos, geopolitics).

When Russia invaded Ukraine in Feb '22, oil prices spiked, as markets feared an embargo on Russian energy. Nothing like that now. Oil prices are where they were last week. Sadly, markets are inured to endless violence in the Middle East. Today's substack: robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/markets-shru…

This weekend's US strikes on three nuclear facilities in Iran are a reminder that Pax Americana still stands. You may not like what it looks like these days, but no one - especially not Europe - can hold a candle to the US. Markets needed this reminder. The Dollar fall is over.

👇👇👇

Very strong safe haven demand for the Dollar. The US is much more energy intensive than the rest of the G10, so rate differentials (blue) have fallen as risk of oil market disruption goes up. But the Dollar (black) is up sharply. These are pure, unadulterated safe haven inflows.

Mr Brooks seems to make calls without regard to his own political views. This is a good and rare commodity.

The tariff inflation shock is coming. Here's today's flash PMI for June: output (what firms charge customers) and input prices (what firms pay suppliers) point to sharply rising inflation. This is Dollar-positive, because it keeps the Fed more hawkish than other central banks...

Plain and simple. Unfortunately, many Italians prefer not to hear about these things.

Oil prices shrugging off the Iranian attack on US air base in Qatar, much as they shrugged off the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. In fact, oil prices fell on the news rather than jumping 👇

The global Brent oil price is tumbling as Iran shoots missiles at Qatar. That seems counterintuitive, but makes total sense. If Iran were serious about retaliation, it'd sink an oil tanker in the Straits of Hormuz. The fact that it isn't doing that means it's bending the knee...

Oil price falling... Here’s a possible explanation

Concordo. O petróleo naturalmente cai porque a retaliação foi bem menos destrutiva do que poderia. Mas a carta do Estreito de Hormuz continua na manga. E o risco de o Irã tomar uma decisão desastrosa ainda não pode ser completamente descartada.

Spot on here

$WTIC Iran gave Qatar forewarning. The regime will declare the attack as a success publicly. In reality, it was only theatre. The Ayatollah is concerned with self-preservation. #FinTwit #Oil #Gas #Crude #Iran #Israel #USA #Qatar #Trump #Iraq #AyatollahKhamenei #StraitOfHormuz

Very strong safe haven demand for $USD US is much more energy intensive than rest of G10 So rate differentials (blue) have fallen as risk of oil market disruption goes up But US$ (black) is up sharply These are pure, unadulterated safe haven inflows Robin Brooks #OOTT

Ég hef, líkt og margir, furðað mig á lækkun olíuverðs í dag eftir atburði helgarinnar. Hér er ein nokkuð trúverðug tilgáta um samhengið þarna:

Instead of spending and doing what is necessary to end the Russian threat to Europe now, the managers and appeasers we have instead of leaders will incur far higher costs dealing with the threat year after year, as has already happened.

Since I put out this tweet 3 hours ago, Brent is down another $5 and is now at $70 per barrel. That's the right market response. If Iran had really wanted to retaliate, it would have sunk an oil tanker in the Straits of Hormuz. Rockets at Qatar are bending the knee to Trump...