You wanna get a sense of what happens in Iran. Re-reading the excellent Laura Secor’s Children of Paradise: Struggle for the Soul of Iran. amazon.com/Children-Parad…

"Econometrics is the art of predicting the past."

Achilles knee of Bayesian analysis

Summer School on Advanced Bayesian Methods in Belgium statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2023/06/26/sum…

My piece in The Atlantic today: Break Up Big Econ The economics profession has become insular and status-obsessed, and not focused enough on making a positive impact on the world. theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…

The Standard Errors of Persistence Timothy G. Conley and Morgan Kelly Forthcoming at 𝗝𝗼𝘂𝗿𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗼𝗳 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗘𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗰𝘀 Let's just say some "famous" papers in the persistence literature out there are not surviving well the test of time... 👇