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The nationwide REINZ House Price Index (HPI) rose 0.2% m/m (sa) in December. t.ly/OBJO4

Despite stable headline inflation in Q4, underlying inflation remains on a downwards trajectory. t.ly/LLylx

Tradable prices (the more volatile part of the CPI) are expected to drive an acceleration in annual headline inflation over coming quarters, but the RBNZ is likely to look through that. t.ly/luTQ3

We expect the Q4 labour market data to show further loosening, with the unemployment rate rising 0.3%pts to 5.1%, in line with the RBNZ’s November MPS forecast. t.ly/VC6RA

Business confidence fell 8 points to +54 in January, while expected own activity eased 4 points to +46, still both very high. bit.ly/ANZ-BO-20250130

House prices stabilised to end 2024, paving the way for a recovery over 2025. t.ly/9NxX3

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 4 points to 96 in January. Unfortunately for retailers, the net percent who think it’s a good time to spend fell 15pts. bit.ly/ANZ-CC-20250131

The uncertainty over President Trump’s policy agenda has led to a rocky start to 2025 for global financial markets. At home, the latest read on the labour market is due next week. t.ly/rhApw

The ANZ World Commodity Price Index rose 1.8% m/m in January. All sectors except forestry managed to lift during the month, but the largest gains were made by meat and wool. bit.ly/ANZ-CPI-202502…

The Q4 labour market data were broadly in line with our and the RBNZ’s expectations and don’t stand in the way of the RBNZ delivering another 50bp cut at the upcoming meeting on 19 Feb. t.ly/LjpsG

We’ve updated our labour market forecasts. We now expect the unemployment rate will peak at 5.3% in the first half of this year, a touch below our previous forecast. t.ly/Xqp4E

The Light Traffic Index continues to bounce around a flat trend, while the more volatile Heavy Traffic Index jumped 4.0% in January after a modest rise in December. bit.ly/ANZ-Truckomete…

This chart pack is to illustrate how key data has evolved relative to the RBNZ’s last published forecasts. t.ly/j5DpI

A 50bp OCR cut next week is universally expected. We are not anticipating large changes to the RBNZ's OCR forecast, given offsetting data developments since November. t.ly/FEOal

Overall card spend growth slipped a little further in January, down 0.9% y/y on top of a 0.6% y/y fall in December. bit.ly/ANZ-Merchant-a…

We expect the RBNZ to cut 50bp next Wednesday. Data this week suggests inflation expectations remain anchored, but the January SPI presents some minor upside risk to our Q1 CPI forecast. t.ly/nAfiK

The RBNZ cut the OCR 50bp to 3.75% today as signalled and expected, and sounded confident about the inflation outlook. We now see the OCR falling to 3% by July in 25bp steps. t.ly/udtCk

Conditions are in place for the economy to recover from the stumble it took in 2024. But headwinds remain, and for many it may take a while before it feels like things are on the up. t.ly/y6RXE

There are risks on both sides of our updated OCR forecast. In this note we outline some of the key ones and what indicators to keep an eye on. t.ly/UsTg5

The RBNZ cut the OCR by 50bp and signalled three more 25bp cuts to go. Our OCR call aligns with that, but risks remain heightened and two-sided. t.ly/iEJVU