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New public release by political scientists of cleaned, well-documented German election results at the municipality and district level (with shapefiles!) osf.io/preprints/soca… Dataverse Project

Ever wonder what you could learn by analyzing individual, anonymous election ballots? So did we. Now, Shiro Kuriwaki and partners at MIT Election Lab, UCLA, Columbia University, and Harvard University have published findings from a new trove of cast vote records: bit.ly/4dXjrm0

New at PNASNews with David Broockman, christian caballero & Matty Easton: "Political practitioners poorly predict which messages persuade the public." As we head into the last week of the campaign, a good reminder that political practitioners have poor intuitions as to what persuades

We fielded the same questions in the leadup to the 2021 and 2024 Japanese election that just happened. Trust in the governing party (LDP) fell across the board this time, regardless of respondent's general party leanings:

A quick summation of some of those points - There's no reason to believe pollsters 'fixed' what went wrong in 2020 - There's some evidence nonresponse bias may be better, but also evidence it's still there / no reason to assume it's gone. Unknown whether weighting fixes

This article about cast vote records in the 2020 was just published in _Nature Scientific Data_. Congratulations to the team. It's open access, so have at it! nature.com/articles/s4159…

Important new research from Yale ISPS’s Shiro Kuriwaki

% who say that as far as they know, all or most of Donald Trump's executive orders in his second term so far have been illegal or unconstitutional U.S. adult citizens 25% Democrats 49% Independents 21% Republicans 5% (Link in reply)

Here's a great paper looking at political polarization by geography. Yes, people are being more polarized by where they live, but this is not b/c people are moving to be w/ people like them. nber.org/papers/w33422

Here's an important new article in Science Advances on the privacy issues related to publishing cast vote records. It turns out they're not as dire as many think/fear. science.org/doi/epdf/10.11…

I'm not at #MPSA25 but if you are, check out Niklas Haehn's poster of our work at 4th floor exhibition hall on predicting ticket splitters, happening now: tinyurl.com/29d87vcs

Interesting account of tariff negotiations in the US vs Japan, and other countries in the latest APSR doi.org/10.1017/S00030…