🔥The 9th Round of Easy Loan, Earn $40 Reward is in progress❗️ ⏰ Promotion Period: January 15th - Feburary 15th, 2025 👉 Register now and check more details at gate.io/campaigns/358

NEW: We recently heard that the Trump administration was leaning on the government of Gambia to help Elon Musk. For weeks, we made phone calls, wrote letters and knocked on folks’ doors to try to confirm it. But we were stuck. So Josh Kaplan and I got on a plane to Banjul. 1/

Wild paper: *fewer* people die when unemployment rises, and lower air pollution is a meaningful part of why

My team at RAND is hiring! Technical analysis for AI policy is desperately needed. Particularly keen on ML engineers and semiconductor experts eager to shape AI policy. Also seeking excellent generalists excited to join our fast-paced, impact-oriented team. Links below.

There is still a lot of uncertainty and disagreement about when/if such large scale labor market disruption from AI might occur. That means we should 1. Reduce our uncertainty through better measurement and monitoring 2. Strengthen adaptive capacity, including by designing

How substitutable are humans & compute in AI research -- "will we get bottlenecked by compute" -- is a key question for AI-2027-type scenarios Parker Whitfill and Cheryl Wu have interesting new work estimating that elasticity of substitution: x.com/cherylwoooo/st…

Comparing the most AI-exposed jobs to the least from the “GPTs Are GPTs” paper, there isn’t evidence in Census data that more exposed jobs or their wages have fallen after ChatGPT ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Check out this work by Saffron Huang – one of the best researchers thinking about the ethical & societal impacts of AGI.

One of the saddest things about AI policy is that we've been so slow to get going that we're in triage mode. This is objectively tragic but at the same time also barely registers among risks companies are juggling, like making pandemic creation easy. x.com/kashhill/statu…

Big-if-true projections about the next 18 months. From Anthropic's US AI Action Plan RFI response.