Today we're releasing findings from the largest-ever forecasting survey of nuclear risk experts & superforecasters (151 total), conducted with Open Nuclear Network. The median expert saw a 5% chance of catastrophe by 2045 - but identified policies that could cut this risk in half. 🧵

A Feb 2024 VERTIC-ONN workshop examined the impact of Trump’s potential re-election on US-DPRK nuclear talks & #DPRK arsenal. New #ThoughtRoom piece concludes the DPRK is unlikely to negotiate or alter its nuclear programme, regardless of the US election.🔗platform.opennuclear.org/thoughtroom/qu…

📢#ONNexternal: ONN's Engagement & Network Specialist Dr. Olamide Samuel & Senior Analyst Sarah Laderman were interviewed for a documentary by RMC Production on nuclear war, its humanitarian impacts & deterrence fragility. Airing early 2025 on French & US TV. Stay tuned!

ONN actively contributed to #UNGA 1⃣st Committee: -Sarah Laderman spoke at event on CBRN disinfo -Marcy R. Fowler delivered a statement on behalf of GP WMD Counter Disinfo -Kristiana Nitisa spoke at event on #NPT -ONN hosted an event on #nuclearrisk forecasting More: opennuclear.org/open-nuclear-n…

📢#ONNexternal: ONN Senior Analyst Sarah Laderman commented for the The Associated Press on CNS research, noting strong evidence suggesting China is developing nuclear propulsion for naval surface ships, likely aircraft carriers. Read more: apnews.com/article/china-…

ONN and @VERTIC_org had the pleasure of meeting with _RobFloyd to discuss recent work and current developments. We extend our heartfelt congratulations on his reappointment as Executive Secretary – his leadership and the work of the CTBTO is more crucial than ever.

ONN thanks Stanley Center for Peace and Security for inviting us to the OSINT IRL event in Lisbon, which brought together a select group of open-source practitioners to collaboratively tackle analytical challenges in nuclear #nonproliferation. Stay tuned for upcoming publications & follow-on work!

ONN team (Elin Bergner, Sarah Laderman & Marcy R. Fowler) notes gaps in the EU’s Indo–Pacific Strategy, advancing a 2⃣-tiered approach of addressing Non-Traditional-Security risks alongside traditional nuclear risk reduction measures in a EU Non-Proliferation and Disarmament paper. Read:opennuclear.org/open-nuclear-n…

Open Nuclear Network kicks off December in style, with a beautifully decorated tree brightening our office as we gear up for a packed schedule of meetings, events & a reception. We extend our warmest wishes to our community for a successful final month of this challenging year!

. Hailey Wingo, grant christopher - On Mastodon & Sarah Laderman provide insights on forecasting as a useful tool in improving our understanding of the #DPRK nuclear program. bit.ly/4gsIyyM

Learn about using forecasting methodologies to look to the future of the #NorthKorean nuclear programme from the article written by Open Nuclear Network's Senior Analyst Sarah Laderman (Sarah Laderman) and VERTIC's Hailey Wingo and grant christopher - On Mastodon for 38 North. Have a read ⬇️

🚨New publication: In Feb 2024, VERTIC, ONN & CNS held a workshop on #DPRK’s nuclear programme, exploring future scenarios for weapons-usable material production, delivery systems & verification using expert forecasting. Read the report: opennuclear.org/open-nuclear-n…

In Jan 2025, Open Nuclear Network fully transitioned to become a programme of PAX sapiens. ONN is happy to welcome our PAX colleagues to the Vienna office, strengthening synergies to advance our mission of preventing predictable global catastrophes, with ONN focused on nuclear risks.

(2/6) However, no credible evidence has been identified to definitively attribute responsibility for the attack. Satellite imagery analysis by Open Nuclear Network verifies Ukrainian video footage depicting a hole in the outer protective enclosure, see below:

Last week, VERTIC supported by ONN hosted a workshop on nuclear latency & irreversibility. Participants explored indicators of nuclear latency & possible future verif. measures in a disarmed or disarming world through a series of brainstorming sessions & a tabletop exercise.

ONN Webinar: North Korea’s Nuclear Path – Where Next? feat. Sarah Laderman, Marcy R. Fowler & grant christopher - On Mastodon 🗓8 April 🕑14:00 CEST 📍Zoom 🔗Register: zoom.us/webinar/regist… Join Open Nuclear Network for expert insights on the current state and future of North Korea’s nuclear programme.

🎥Missed our latest webinar? "North Korea’s Nuclear Path – Where Next?" featured our latest research on the DPRK’s nuclear arsenal, incl. analysis of #satimagery & fuel cycle, as well as forecasting workshop insights. Read a recap & watch a recording: opennuclear.org/open-nuclear-n…

At VeSPoTec & Forschungszentrum Jülich | @[email protected]'s Science-Peace-Security conference, Sen. Analyst Jaewoo Shin presented w/VERTIC's Grant Christopher on DPRK nuclear facility monitoring. Sen. Analyst Sarah Laderman presented VERTIC-ONN work on latency and irreversibility in nuclear disarmament.

💡On 25 Oct at the 2025 IPI - The Global Network for Independent Media World Congress held in Vienna, ONN team Sarah Laderman, Elin Bergner & Nikita Degtyarev presented on “Cracking Nuclear Secrets: Open Source Nuclear Analysis and How to Use It In Reporting” at a session hosted by Stanley Center for Peace and Security & Atomic Reporters.

🚨Happening this week! ONN and Diplomatische Akademie Wien's high-level dialogue on the future of nuclear governance is on 4 Dec, 17:00 CET. Join us in Vienna or via livestream. RSVP (in person): forms.office.com/r/C4JNMLx9q8 Stream: youtube.com/live/upYj5L3-N…