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Unintentionally doubles as a “roots of populism” panel!

Funny. This is an insightful book on that topic, by Jacob Hale Russell & Dennis Patterson. direct.mit.edu/books/book/592…

“The battle over TikTok is a major rule-of-law crisis in its own right. But its greatest significance may be how starkly it illustrates this administration’s imperial conception of itself.”

So if you are in a zero tariff free trade treaty with the U.S. approved by the legislatures on both sides, you still get a 25 percent tariff imposed on your exports by a president that feels like it? “Partnering” with the U.S. is not what it used to be.

China’s weaponisation of rare earths is a new kind of trade war. My latest for the Financial Times ft.com/content/77eabb…

I look forward to discussing Andrew Preston's important new book, Total Defense: The New Deal and the Origins of National Security, on July 15, hosted by Quincy Institute: quincyinst.org/events/book-ta…

NEW: Trump has been averse to say the US stockpile of Patriot missiles is at 25% of what the Pentagon needs for all of its military plans, but the depletion contributed to the Trump admin pausing transfers to Ukraine, per people familiar The Guardian theguardian.com/us-news/2025/j…

Shared some thoughts with Adam Taylor on the perennially elusive pivot to Asia.

Japan has long sought a “special relationship” with the U.S., one like the U.K. enjoyed (in the past). Those dreams were shattered on Monday by the tone of Trump’s letter. asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade-…

Trump on inauguration night: "As long as we have total victory, we do it without fighting, through our power and might, we will lead the world to peace." Hardly a recipe for restraint. presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/rema…

French defence minister Sebastian Lecornu says that the Russian demand of Ukraine’s demilitarisation is an absolute red line for the pro-Ukrainian coalition because in the absense of NATO membership, strong Ukrainian army is the only security guarantee. This is a helpful

Today's Chartbook examines the Mega projects planned for "reconstructing Gaza," as Tony Blair's staff is reportedly involved in Trump's "Gaza Reviera "planning. Looking at Financial Times's rendering of the plan, those AI images weren't exaggerating.

1/ How might US allies react if the US pulls back troops or downgrades security commitments? Our new report draws lessons from historical cases of limited U.S. retrenchment. 🧵 rand.org/t/RBA739-3

I don't see an easy way out of the Trump vs Lula confrontation following today's 50% tariff announcement. Trump's previous battles with Petro, Sheinbaum and Mulino de-escalated relatively quickly, but those are countries with very US-connected economies & security relationships

Thomas D’Arcy McGee in the Canadian House of Commons, 1868

Chock full of good ideas for the Global Posture Review, by Dan Caldwell 🇺🇸 and Jennifer Kavanagh: defensepriorities.org/explainers/ali…

Other notable data points: -Al Udeid is perhaps the most heavily fortified US base in the region -Iran fired just over a dozen missiles -confirms SRBMs fired in the Gulf are *much* more accurate than MRBMs fired at Israel.

It’s reasonable and indeed important for U.S. officials to get a good sense — ahead of a Taiwan conflict — of whether and how allies would contribute to the island’s defense.

And today I receive a letter from Cigna stating that an "attached claim" I submitted lacks required information. Alas, no claim is attached and there is no way to identify the claim to which the letter refers! Away we go, Cigna Healthcare, into the man-hour pit, depth unknown.