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Keep your eyes down the road. Higher yield and stronger dollar are baking in lower economic surprises in 2 months' time.

Great graph!!

May have already started? Steve Donzé

Pick your favourite inflation measure, from above target (core CPI) to near target (core PCE market based i.e. excluding imputed prices).

Zooming out, opportunities to lock in real yields at or above the economy's potential growth are scarce. Once a decade.

Y aún así, "contra natura" el Oro va como una moto. El Oro sigue siendo el mercado más extraño, y tal vez por ello con más potencial, de este lustro.

First crossing within G10 space.

Rate & liquidity easing underpins valuation, nothing new here, and there is still some more coming.

The Fed can afford to pause as monetary easing flows through to private credit creation. Textbook handover.

Trump (and Covid) has been good to global money. For now it rhymes.

US banks in battle to lend. Large banks at first. Now small banks catching up.

Time for the ECB to go the Fed way? Cut less, taper more.

The ECB eases the most (rate) and tightens the most (QT) at the same time 🧐

Looking back, the US economy was reliquifying into Liberation Day. On all metrics.

The Fed is not easing, but US banks are, including through Liberation Day.

So 2017

Absent trade frictions, the global easing cycle would be all that we are talking about. Bob Elliott

Powell Fed v. New Fed