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Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast for Q1 2025 is GRIM at -2.2%/yr. Tight monetary policy + Trump’s TARIFF MADNESS = RECIPE FOR DISASTER.

Senator Chuck Grassley, from my home state of Iowa, & Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA) are on the right track with their Trade Review Act of 2025. The bipartisan act would rein in the Pres.'s executive power. Let's hope it passes before Trump's TARIFF MADNESS destroys US agriculture.

Trump's tariffs will dry up demand for loans & advisory services, causing banks' earnings to CRATER. My latest in The Banker: thebanker.com/content/710456…

#ChinaWatch🇨🇳: Chinese refiners have nearly stopped importing United States oil. China has substituted US oil with the importation of Canadian oil. Now we know why Trump is no longer trumpeting his "drill, baby, drill" mantra.

#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: Turkey’s CBRT raised its policy rate from 42.5% to 46%. This should have been done LONG AGO. As I told CentralBanking.com, “The CBRT has been way behind the tightening curve…[Inflation] is moving down, but it is doing so very slowly.” centralbanking.com/central-banks/…

According to the International Energy Agency, in 2025, global oil demand will grow at its slowest pace since COVID. TRUMP'S TARIFFS = A TAX ON INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS = SLOW GROWTH.

Yours truly: “Argentina is not going to come close to hitting the consensus inflation forecast of 23% because the money supply is growing way too fast. Monetary policy is way too loose.” More in my latest with the FT's Latin America Editor Michael Stott: ft.com/content/08f6a6…

I have discovered the world's 67th hyperinflation episode: It occurred in the Łódź Ghetto in Feb. 1944, when the monthly inflation rate hit 321%. Poland holds the prize for the most episodes of hyperinflation = 6 episodes. See the Hanke-Blustein article: docs.google.com/document/d/e/2…

#EconWatch: The TRUMP SLUMP has ARRIVED. Thanks to Trump’s tariffs, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has NOSEDIVED. TRUMP THE TARIFF MAN = PYROMANIAC.

More COLLATERAL DAMAGE from Trump’s tariffs: China is weaponizing its dominance over critical materials essential for semiconductors, EVs, & defense. China blocked exports & blacklisted US firms. With critical materials, China has an ace up its sleeve. tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…

Pres. Trump: "We have very little inflation... [With] Biden, oil went through the roof, that's what caused our problem." WRONG. Oil shocks were NOT the cause of inflation. Inflation is always preceded by a SURGE in the money supply. INFLATION = MONETARY PHENOMENON.

#TurkeyWatch🇹🇷: A Turkish court handed a 3-month SUSPENSION to journalist Bahadir Özgür for allegedly insulting the Turkish gov’t during a 2022 panel discussion. Erdogan’s Turkey = NO PRESS FREEDOM = NO PROBLEM.

"There is never a good war or a bad peace." - Benjamin Franklin (1773)

Columbia Univ. Prof. Jeff Sachs on US regime change operations: “The US has tried [to overthrow foreign gov't's] around 100 times since WW2... It's typically led to outright disaster.” As Pres. Suharto's chief advisor in Indonesia in 1998, I observed one of these first-hand.

Gold has OUTPERFORMED the S&P 500 over the last 20 years. As I always say: "BUY GOLD, WEAR DIAMONDS." x.com/Barchart/statu…

Everyone knows that politicians benefit from insider trading. The only way to control insider trading by politicians is to pass a law banning political appointees & US Congressmen from having ANY discretionary power over their portfolios while in office. More on CGTN America:

TARIFFS ALWAYS BACKFIRE. PRES. TRUMP = PYROMANIAC. x.com/BRICSinfo/stat…

Since late February, daily arrivals at the top 10 US airports have PLUNGED. Business, tourism, and government travel are all in decline. Another canary in the coal mine. A SLOWDOWN IS BAKED IN THE CAKE.

Trump's tariffs are hammering private equity dealmaking. According to Matt Wirz of the WSJ, "recession fears and market turmoil have brought dealmaking to a near standstill." TRUMP'S TRADE WAR = MASSIVE COLLATERAL DAMAGE wsj.com/finance/invest…

The US trade deficit is a PRIVILEGE granted by foreign investors who buy US assets. Americans gain access to affordable capital, while foreign governments and institutions get a safe place to park their money and earn a return. My latest in Fortune: fortune.com/article/trump-…