Flows into income-based ETFs show no signs of slowing. The hunt for yield is fueling record market caps and pushing SPX open interest higher. Another reminder that, more often than not, regulations are what shape market structure.

Market cap distortion at its finest. $SPX $NVDA

The $SPX 3-month realized volatility just fell by 8.2 points, marking the largest single-day decline since 1987.

The "Endowment Model" natural conclusion.

Lot's of moves happening beneath the surface today. This is the kind of dispersion you get when a pinned index runs into idiosyncratic risk. $SPX $VIX

A wild stat from Vanguard. "In 2024, 35% of hardship withdrawals were used to avoid a home foreclosure or eviction, which remains the most common reason for taking a hardship withdrawal."

it’s easier for a tech guy to learn finance than for a finance guy to learn tech

July OpEx is this Friday, with approximately $1.65 trillion in notional open interest set to expire across $SPX and $SPY linked contracts.

The case for a structurally higher $VIX floor. Noel Smith

An interesting shift in recent years is the breakdown in correlation between $SPX and the equally weighted $SPX. A likely catalyst for the change was the 2017 repatriation tax, where $AAPL was one of the biggest beneficiary. What did they do with the cash? Stock Buybacks.

apnews.com/article/438fae…

85% downside day for $SPX, though you'd barely notice just looking at the index level. Note the impressive balancing act under the surface, with $NVDA, $AVGO, $MSFT, and $AAPL masking the majority of the weakness. Dispersion at its finest.

Another look at today's dispersion. $SPX $RSP

Even with the Powell drama today, $SPX vol was well within range.

$VIX call skew via MS QDS, as in, not an unreasonable time to buy VIX upside spreads

$SPX is up 5.4% since the June OpEx with 73% positive days and 10 new all-time highs. Will the year of the OpEx continue?

Another $SPX ATH with a structurally higher $VIX. Complacency kills.

I'll be on the Spaces in 5 min. FYI, I'm not a Bitcoin expert and make zero claims to be one. I can speak to derivatives markets and some tradecraft but the idiosyncratic aspects of $BTC are not my wheelhouse.

Quick reality check with $SPX at all-time highs. Buying the dip has been a far more consistent strategy than chasing the rip.