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A surprisingly dovish #Fed provides markets with an early Christmas present. We have long expected looser policy in 2024 but the timing of the announcement looks odd as recent data have not been significantly weaker than expected. For more details: bit.ly/4atvyGU

The US labour market gets off to a strong start in 2024. However, the moderating demand for temporary workers cannot confirm the pickup in payrolls and average weekly hours worked dropped to the lowest since 2010, excluding March 2020: bit.ly/42w8vI0

The US economy continues to show remarkable resilience in the face of one of the most aggressive monetary tightening cycles. While the risk of a more severe slowdown is still high, chances of a very rare soft-landing have risen in recent months: bit.ly/3P0t5e2

Both ISM surveys point to a weaker employment situation in the US, but payrolls and the unemployment rate still show a strong labour market. Have a look at our latest Weekly Macro and Markets View: bit.ly/3xvBpNb

US inflation is not vanquished yet. Price pressure remains high, making near-term rate cuts less likely, but some components look more promising. Have a look at our latest Weekly Macro and Markets View: bit.ly/49GysXj

US GDP growth slowed to an annualised rate of 1.6%. PCE Core inflation was stuck at 2.8% YoY, which is in line with the Fed’s projections and keeps them on track for rate cuts later this year. Have a look at our latest Weekly Macro and Markets View: bit.ly/4aWErIQ

Weaker growth and fading price pressure will allow the Fed to loosen monetary policy later this year, supporting equities. The stock market already expects a benign outcome, however, and remains vulnerable to disappointments on both growth and inflation: bit.ly/4a9JggW

The US economy slows markedly in the first quarter. While trade and government spending were the main drags consumer spending also weakened. Have a look at our latest Weekly Macro and Markets View: bit.ly/458AVJm

UK headline inflation falls back to the Bank of England’s target of 2%. While the recent trend is reassuring, core and particularly service inflation remain too high. For further details have a look at our latest Weekly Macro and Markets View: bit.ly/3VTpmD0

Goldilocks is back in the US. Recession fears receded and the goldilocks scenario regains support as the latest batch of data showed price pressure keeps fading and consumer spending is holding up. Have a look at our latest Weekly Macro and Markets View: bit.ly/4cyumC5

The US labour market buffer is all but gone. The number of job openings fell to the lowest since 2021 and new payrolls were below expectations, confirming the trend of a weakening employment situation. Other data points paint a brighter picture, however: bit.ly/3AZZZaA

Strong US payrolls make aggressive rate cuts less likely, but there are some weak spots under the surface. Have a look at our latest Weekly Macro and Markets View: bit.ly/3YaICgm

Stock markets soar on the Republicans’ election victory. Investors welcome the prospect of deregulation and lower taxes while inflation uncertainty weighs on Treasuries. Have a look at our latest Weekly Macro and Markets View: bit.ly/3UKuXdI

The Trump administration’s focus will be on trade, taxes, immigration and deregulation. Many measures will support growth, but most of the policies will also fuel inflation. Have a look at our latest Topical Thoughts publication for a more in-depth look: bit.ly/49crCu2

President Trump’s tariff plans send financial markets into a tailspin. The size and breadth of the tariffs significantly increases the risk of a US recession and weighs on the global growth outlook. Have a look at our latest Weekly Macro and Markets View: bit.ly/4lkEeVB

US recession risks are rising. Manufacturing activity keeps contracting, with manufacturing production now at levels usually only seen in recession. Have a look at our latest Weekly Macro and Markets View: bit.ly/4jIbbu1

US consumer confidence falls to the second lowest level on record. Households’ inflation expectations soar as they brace for the tariff impact. Have a look at our latest Weekly Macro and Markets View: bit.ly/3SfvYZL

US economic activity softens in May, but the labour market is holding up. New orders, particularly in the service sector, point at further headwinds. For more details have a look at our latest Weekly Macro and Markets View: bit.ly/3FK6OzR

US inflation shows only very limited tariff-induced price pressure in May. While some price rises are still likely, it is reassuring that inflation has not picked up substantially despite broad-based tariffs.

President Trump signs the Big Beautiful Bill. The bill raises the debt limit and provides some stimulus to the economy, but extends unsustainably high fiscal deficits for years to come. Have a look at our latest Weekly Macro and Markets View: bit.ly/46uvcQN