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NEW ODD LOTS: What actually was The Cold war? Tracy Alloway and I talked to the great historian Vladislav Zubok about his new book on exactly this question and the lessons from which era are relevant today. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/vla…

New hobby: replacing every mention of "AI" in articles about US-China tech competition with "ballistic missiles" to underscore just how militaristically we're talking about this stuff.

This is wild wsj.com/world/china/xi…

A very, very, very unexpected soft print in CPI:

At this point the Fed has to be asking if the balance of risks has tilted more towards unemployment than inflation

The most important thing happening in 2025 is obviously the Avocado-Bitcoin correlation reasserting itself:

NEW ODD LOTS: It's the return of Ricardo Hausmann. He joined me and Tracy Alloway for a fascinating chat on understanding the trade war through the lens of economic complexity, the politics of trade, cities vs. rural economics, and more. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ric…

NEW ODD LOTS: It’s the podcast debut for Stephen Miran Tracy Alloway and I talked to Trump’s Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers about tariffs, tax cuts, and the overall state of the US economy podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/odd…

If Amtrak Northeast delay updates were truthful: Amtrak: Your 1:47pm train is now estimated to depart at 2:47pm. That departure will likely be revised higher in 15 minute increments for the next hour, meaning your ultimate departure time will be 3:47pm, but we’re not going to

NEW ODD LOTS: Tracy Alloway and I were joined by Mackenzie Hawkins who talked about Trump's AI deals in the Gulf. We discussed the split between hawks, worried about the spread of chips and cloud capacity vs. those who want to see US AI tech dominate globally. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the…

NEW ODD LOTS: Tracy Alloway and I talked to Morgan Stanley's Jim Egan about a stark divide in the American economy: 'Do you have a ZIRP-era mortgage or don't you?' We're already seeing it show up in the data, with possible effects for years to come. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/jim…

***NEW PAPER*** open access Tariff blitz, oil price jumps, freight rate hikes: Cost shocks are back. We analyzed 138,962 corporate earnings calls with AI/LLM to show how economy-wide cost shocks let corporations raise prices & increase profits—triggering sellers' inflation. A🧵

NEW ODD LOTS: I've been thinking lately that complex financial instruments are underrated tech innovations. So Tracy Alloway and I had on the one and only Gillian Tett to talk about derivatives, risk, and what she sees as a new 5th stage of capitalism podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/gil…

NEW ODD LOTS: Zichen Wang's exit interview from America. Just before he left the US, Tracy Alloway and I talked to the author of the great Pekingnology newsletter about his time here as a student and the future of the US-China relationship. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/zic…