Extremely wet for some and summer-like warmth for others but, by next weekend, a crisp autumn chill looks set descend on the UK. First #frost perhaps…

…and a drier, chillier outlook for all before too long.

Why eastern Scotland? Why so much rain? Saturated air, saturated ground, strong winds and a substantial mountain-range, all combined factors. This view from the north, with downstream areas to the sea most vulnerable to impacts). #StormBabet #redwarning ❗️ ❗️ ❗️

Much to play for, but grey shading indicates where various models show greatest risk of most disruptive/damaging gusts midday Thursday. This based on midday Monday computer runs. Consistency should improve in next couple of days #StormCiaran

Forecast: high hype, but lower probability… at this stage. Charts like this one for later this week will change over the next few days. Potential there but not yet possible to give specifics for time or place… yet. Btw we all know that snow is pink, not white, right? #uksnow

All that water… get ready for #ice next week. All change!

After such a wet, warm, windy winter so far, novelty flakes possible early next week in the south… Monday into Tuesday… (disruption unlikely, but with scattered joy for some 😉 ). #uksnow ❄️

A flurry of interest. Some swirls to start the week. Coverage likely on news outlets, less on ground 😉. Brief settling possible, mostly hills (especially Downs, possibly Chilterns). Significant disruption unlikely. #uksnow ❄️

High impact snow event(s) look increasingly likely across the U.K. through next week. The tricky bit: where and when…? Some northern areas the safest bet, but potential is there for major snowfall further south too. Potential does not (yet) mean it’s going to happen. #uksnow

🔵 High confidence in cold, wintry spell next week with disruptive snow for some. 🔵 Still much model volatility, as expected at this range. 🔵 So… unwise yet to define too precisely the track and timing of weather systems and attendant snow probability. #uksnow ❄️ ❄️

WHAT WE KNOW: 🔵 Coldest spell of the winter so far next week. 🔵 Crisp sunshine / hard frosts / freezing fog. 🔵 Snow showers mainly north and west, especially N. Scotland. Disruption possible. WHAT WE DON’T KNOW: 🔴 Extent of potential snow event in south midweek. #uksnow

Major snow UNLIKELY in south next week. Array of models here shows snow depth midweek. Detail will change. Snow showers mainly for northwest UK, mostly in northern Scotland. Disruption possible. Crisp days/hard frosts for many. Some freezing fog. Milder next weekend. #uksnow

Proper winter today across parts of the north. Some remarkably low temperatures over the next couple of nights, where there’s clear skies and snow-cover. #uksnow #yorkshiredales #wensleydale.

Snowy tops and bare bottoms! Upper #wensleydale this wintry Wednesday. Max temp -3c. #uksnow.

Warm in the sun but woolly coats will be useful for old and young these next few nights… it’s a chilly late April outlook #Wensleydale #frost

Deep, crisp and even in Upper #Wensleydale tonight…. ❄️ #uksnow

With deep #snow, calm winds and starry skies, some impressively low night-time temperatures are likely later this week. As dense, cold air collects in the valleys - easily down to -10c or below. Upper #Wensleydale

For balance… -20C is not going to happen for 99.9% of the country. 0 to -5 will be a more typical overnight temperature later this week where most people are; but -10 to -15 possible over snow cover, where skies stay clear and winds are calm in some northern rural areas 🥶

Very cold, yes, but this spell remains less extreme than some predictions have suggested. Tonight - expect similar again to the ranges suggested below

Sometimes ‘airmass’ doesn’t tell the story. While warmth resides aloft, frigid air has been trapped below. Top temps of -2C with light snow today in Upper #Wensleydale. Ironically by the end of the week the ‘airmass’ will be colder but the weather will be milder, wetter & windier