Widespread storm spotter reports of 0.75"+ hail across the #Tallahassee metro area this afternoon. NOAA's MRMS dataset shows an estimated broad swath of severe, 1-1.5" hail (reds/dark reds) as occurring across central, south, and southeastern sections of town.

Man it’s a hot one. Fortunately, just like the ocean under the moon, the first month of hurricane season has been so smooth that you could forget about it. Today's column looks at why hurricanes form with an assist from Carlos Santana and Phil Collins. weathertiger.substack.com/p/the-phil-col…

You may have seen him on Jeopardy! or on TV breaking down major storms. Meet Dr. Ryan Truchelut '08 aka Weather Tiger (WeatherTiger - weathertiger.substack.com), a "true lifelong weather nerd." bit.ly/4mWjOTI (via Tallahassee Democrat)

So, so bad. The most impactful loss of a forecast tool so far. Losing SSMIS, we won't know if a hurricane's structure is changing to indicate rapid intensification overnight. It'll also degrade forecast skill for all weather because SSMIS data is a key input to computer models.

New tropical depression incoming. Like Andrea, will also be very weak and short-lived. If it reaches tropical storm intensity, #Barry is the next name on the list.

Florida and the eastern Gulf Coast will be wet this week due to a stationary front/upper disturbance combo that has a slight chance of tropically organizing in 4-8 days in the northeastern Gulf or near-shore Atlantic. More in today's tropical bulletin: weathertiger.substack.com/p/not-totally-…

A disorganized tropical disturbance means #Florida and the coastal SE U.S. are in for a rainy wind-up to the ID4 weekend, but any tropical development of this feature should be limited and is no cause for alarm. Tuesday tropical goings-on and more here: weathertiger.substack.com/p/showers-of-s…

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Three, located in the Atlantic Ocean offshore of the southeastern United States, at 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC).

Close your eyes and picture what a hurricane looks like on the ground. Whatever you’re visualizing, it probably isn’t inland flash flooding. It probably should be. This week’s tropical column looks at why heartbreaking weeks like this one keep happening: weathertiger.substack.com/p/high-water-h…

Interestingly, late July/early August ACE is one of the most positively correlated periods with elevated hurricane activity over the rest of the season. Likely linked to 30-60 day period of the MJO➡️higher probability of favorable conditions in late Aug/early Sept season peak.

Irritant-level tropical threats roll on, with today’s focus on a disturbance (#Invest93L) in the northern Gulf which may cause flooding in Louisiana/Mississippi. Watching that disturbance and changing upper-level winds in this week's hurricane column: weathertiger.substack.com/p/mjo-risin-hu…

Hurricane Season 2025 is off to a slow start, but nearly 95% of ACE is still ahead. In today's updated seasonal outlook (part 1), WeatherTiger’s real-time algorithm is making sense of conflicting data, with a likeliest outcome of ~135 ACE. More here: weathertiger.substack.com/p/weathertiger…

August will begin with minimal tropical activity through the 10th. That frees me up for another entry in my guided tour of #hurricane season, this time looking at August: when the heat index & prospect of serious tropical threats are gonna make you sweat. weathertiger.substack.com/p/august-and-e…