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Smart policy can prevent oilpatch busts and protect industry from volatile input costs. But storage isn’t profitable for private firms—it’s a public good. We need to modernize the SPR and expand it into a Strategic Resilience Reserve for key commodities.

Fed leaves rates unchanged “The committee … judges that the risks of higher unemployment and higher inflation have risen.”

Time to legislate some automatic stabilizers!

Is there any anti-recession advocacy group besides Employ America

Great defense of how Inflation Reduction Act supports energy project deployment and tamps down electricity price volatility from Skanda Amarnath and Arnab Datta at Employ America today. These two arguments are particularly striking:

IS ANYONE PAYING ATTENTION TO NATURAL GAS PRICES? As LNG exports and AI data centers surge, the IRA serves as a hedge against electricity price shocks. Simply put: Gut the IRA, get ready to pay. New from Skanda Amarnath and me on Employ America. 🧵1/

CPI was in line with expectations Core CPI was +0.24% in April, keeping the YoY rate at 2.8% Headline CPI was +0.22% in April, lowering the YoY rate to 2.3% from 2.4%, a new four-year low

Republican colleagues, it’s not too late to reverse course and avoid this costly mistake! Remember when the 2024 election was all about the Cost of Living?

The DOE is gutting a powerful tool for stabilizing U.S. oil markets. They’re killing DOE’s ability to use fixed-price contracts when refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). That means one thing: less optionality, more risk. 🧵1/

You’d think the goal of an entity like doge would be to make the government more agile But instead it’s repeatedly chipped away at the already sluggish govt’s ability to be resilient and reactive One of the many elements of this admin that’ll be causing problems for decades

New blog post out on the Fed's Framework The typical Fed criticism of nominal income or gdp targeting is that it's too confusing to the public I don't know what could be more confusing than the Fed's communications with respect to inflation over the past few years.

Instead of slicing and dicing inflation subaggregates, the Fed could center its communication around the pace of nominal labor income and nominal consumer spending growth. That is a closer approximation of the "demand-side of inflation" and what the Fed intends to affect /End

⬇️ Important thread for the Fed framework review ⬇️

At SIEPR, we’re convening today’s conversations to explore these dynamics — not to promote a single model, but to surface insights from across disciplines and geographies. We hope today’s conversation helps advance an informed, constructive dialogue with our speakers: ✔️

Amidst any tariff-related inflation, lower oil prices should help households. But gas prices haven’t eased recently 🤔 Plus, electricity prices are surging & expected to be more volatile (h/t Employ America) New blog 👇 Carson Investment Research Ryan Detrick, CMT carsongroup.com/insights/blog/…

Very few people have been more correct than Skanda Amarnath of Employ America. It was an honor to pick his 🧠 on how he sees the economy and macro backdrop playing out the rest of 2025. Our latest Facts vs Feelings is 🔥 Sonu Varghese youtu.be/YhL9VNJwSRk?si…

The Supply Problem In The Fed's Framework - Part 4: Preparing For Inflation Risk Where Investment Is Rate-Sensitive High interest rates have slowed rental construction aggressively relative to demand. Market rents could reaccelerate soon. Does the Fed know how to respond?

Incredibly important point from Robinson Meyer in the NYT today. Energy demand is swiftly growing. Pulling capacity growth offline will spike prices.

Read Rob's great piece here nytimes.com/2025/06/02/opi…

And more from Skanda Amarnath and me on this dynamic. employamerica.org/blog/supportin…