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Siyu Jiang, MSc in Psychology: Learning Sciences from Universität München, joins as a doctoral student for a project on social networks and learning, supervised by Christoph Stadtfeld . Welcome to Social Networks Lab ! 💐✍️😃

Q: How many simulation runs to approximate winning probabilities for #FIFAWWC ? 10,000 ? 100,000 ? (1/4)

A: no simulation at all. Given any match outcome model, tournament winning probabilities can be computed exactly - and in the time of fewer than 500 simulation runs. (2/4)

The key observation is that team trajectories are dependent only after mixing. Single team trajectories can therefore be computed from joint probabilities of pairs of teams advancing together. (3/4)

While the preprint is being polished, here are the results for a simple model based on the FIFA World Ranking. Joint work with Gordana Marmulla and Ivana Smokovic. All hoping for a different outcome. (4/4).

Preprint arxiv.org/abs/2307.10411 submitted just in time. Algorithm extends any match outcome model to FIFA Women's World Cup winning probabilities in split second, w/o simulation. cc: Ivana Smokovic David Schoch, RSS Sports Section prediction competition

1/n Members of the Social Networks Lab are ready for the european social network conference #EUSN2023 in Ljubljana! #sna #networkscience #socialnetworks We are actively participating as presenters and organisers of an event:

In case you missed the presentation “The Origins and History of the Social Networks Perspective”, I left the workshop video on my personal webpage! (section: Short Workshops): aespinosarada.com/teaching #sna #socialnetworks #networkscience

The most important spatial reference on a ⚽️pitch? Coordinate systems of data providers seem to suggest corner flags (Stats Perform Pro @StatsBomb Hudl Wyscout) or center mark (TRACAB). Since dimensions vary, this results in distortions and ambiguous coordinates. #soccer #analytics